04-06-2011, 04:43 PM
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مركز البورصة العام
Fed Minutes to Show More Optimism
The minutes from the most recent Federal Reserve meeting will be released this afternoon and investors will be combing through the report for clues on just how far behind the Federal Reserve really is. Back in March, when the Fed last met, they sounded more optimistic about the U.S. economy and made no mention of the negative impact caused by the earthquake in Japan. At the time, the central bank described the economic recovery as being “on a firmer footing” thanks in part to the drop in the unemployment rate. They also recognized the rise in oil prices and its impact on inflation by saying that inflationary pressures have been subdued, which is an upgrade from their prior view that “underlying inflation has been trending downwards.” Although they believe that the price pressures are “transitory,” they are keeping an eye on them in case commodity prices resume their rise and drive up inflation expectations. Since then, comments from Fed officials reflect growing willingness within the central bank to normalize monetary policy. Fed President Kocherlakota, Plosser and Fisher believe that the central bank should act soon by ending QE2 early or raising interest rates before the end of the year. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said last night that inflation needs to be watched carefully and that the Fed could move more quickly if his assumptions on inflation are wrong. Although this sentiment is not universally shared by all of the Fed Presidents, there is enough to suggest that the central bank is gearing up to end asset purchases in June.
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